Determinants of viral infection dynamics across biological scales

Knowing how pathogens replicate and spread within individual hosts improves our understanding of how they are transmitted within and across species. I develop mathematical models of within-host viral dynamics to assess virulence and transmissibility across host and virus species. I then characterize their impact on epidemiological dynamics at the wildlife-human interface. My current project applies these models to emerging bat-borne paramyxoviruses and coronaviruses to quantify the contribution of various host and virus factors to cell-to-cell transmission within a host, and subsequent host-to-host transmission within and across species. My models feature a Bayesian approach that enables the integration of multiple data types and the explicit consideration of the observation process. I parameterize these models using in vitro and in vivo laboratory data collected across biological scales, from molecular interactions to transmission experiments. To obtain these data, I collaborate with experts in experimental virology across academic and governmental institutions.

Main Collaborators

• Jamie Lloyd-Smith, University of California Los Angeles, USA
• Dylan Morris, University of California Los Angeles, USA
• Hector Aguilar-Carreño, Cornell University, USA
• Vincent Munster, NIAID Rocky Mountain Laboratories, USA
• Raina Plowright, Montana State University, USA
• And others from the BatOneHealth team

Main Funders